This will be a interesting first round matchup as the best player on the court plays for the Heat (Dwyane Wade) but the next best four players are on the Celtics who have home court advantage. Here is a breakdown of this series:
Point Guard: The Miami Heat had trouble at this position all year long before settling on Carlos Arroyo as the starter. The team took off with Arroyo at point guard but D-Wade usually still brings the ball up the court and he runs the offense. Arroyo played in 72 games (35 starts) for the Heat this season and he averaged 22.0 minutes, 6.1 points, 1.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. He will likely have huge issues trying to defend Rajon Rondo in this series.
Rajon Rondo is they guy who makes the Celtics go both offensively and defensively. He played in 81 games (all starts) for the Celtics this season and he averaged 36.6 minutes, 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 2.3 steals per game. Rondo is just too fast for Arroyo both offensively and defensively so this will be a mis-match.
EDGE: CELTICS
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade is one of the best five players on the planet and he will have little problem abusing Ray Allen in this series. D-Wade played in 77 games (all starts) for the Heat this season and he averaged 36.3 minutes, 26.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Wade will be getting to the basket at will so the big men of the Celtics better be willing to help Allen on D. Wade will be audtioning for free agency in the playoffs so look out Celtics.
Ray Allen still is a solid ballplayer. He can still drain a open jumper but he is not a good defender. Allen played in 80 games (all starts) for the Celtics this season and he averaged 35.2 minutes, 16.3 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Allen has to make D-Wade work on defense or he’s really going to go off. I think Allen will get his far share of points in this series.
EDGE: HUGE FOR THE HEAT
Small Forward: Quentin Richardson is going to have his hands full trying to deal with Paul Pierce. Richardson played in 76 games (75 starts) for the Heat this season and he averaged 27.4 minutes, 8.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game. He can get hot from the outside at times and the Heat hope that Q-Rich will make Pierce work on defense.
Paul Pierce has been the go to man for the Celtics this season. He has played in 71 games (all starts) for the Celtics this year and he averaged 34.0 minutes, 18.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game. This will be a big advantage spot for the Celtics as Pierce is just a bigger and better ballplayer than Richardson is.
EDGE: CELTICS
Power Forward: Michael Beasley of the Heat is more of a small forward playing the power forward position. He played in 78 games (all starts) for the Heat this season and he averaged 29.8 minutes, 14.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.0 steal per game. I see Beasley playing like a small forward in this series trying to outrun Kevin Garnett and make him guard him outside.
This isn’t the same old K.G. as he is starting to play like a old man. He just doesn’t have the hops he used to but I think he will be plenty motivated with the playoffs here. Garnett played in 69 games (all starts) this year for the Celtics and he averaged 29.9 minutes, 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. The Celtics would be smart to get the ball down low to Garnett where he will have a height advantage on Beasley.
EDGE: CELTICS
Center: Jermaine O’Neal is a crafty veteran who knows all of the tricks. He played in 70 games (all starts) for the Heat this season and he averaged 28.4 minutes, 13.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.4 blocked shots per game. The Heat need to be aggressive on offense and get the ball down low to O’Neal in an effort to get the bigs of the Celtics into foul trouble.
Kendrick Perkins has been outstanding this season for the Celtics. He does all the dirty work around the basket. Perkins played in 78 games (all starts) for the Celtics this year and he averaged 27.6 minutes, 10.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist and 1.7 blocked shots per game this year. The Celtics don’t draw many plays for the big man as he gets most of his points off effort.
EDGE: EVEN
BENCH: The Heat don’t have a deep bench but they will play what they have against the Celtics. Udonis Haslem is the best player the Heat have coming off the bench. He is a hustle player doing all of the little things that help teams win ballgames. Haslem played in 78 games (0 starts) for the Heat last season and he averaged 27.9 minutes, 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game. Backup point guard Mario Chalmers will also likely get a lot of P.T. for the Heat in this series. He played in 73 games (22 starts) for the Heat this season and he averaged 24.8 minutes, 7.1 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Dorell Wright is probably the second most athletic player on the Heat’s roster so he will likely get a chance to run around a bit in this series. Wright played in 72 games (1 start) for the Heat this season and he averaged 20.8 minutes, 7.1 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Look for SG/SF James Jones and C Joel Anthony to also get some P.T. in this series but I doubt either of them will make a big impact.
The Celtics’ bench is loaded with talent. It all starts with the feisty PF/C Rasheed Wallace. Wallace played in 79 games (13 starts) for the Celtics this season and he averaged 22.5 minutes, 9.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 assist and 1.0 steal per game. He might be starting to slow down a bit but I have a feeling that the bright lights of the playoffs will invigorate him. Michael Finley came over to the Celtics late in the season and he showed enough for them to give him some P.T. in this series. Glen “Big Baby” Davis got a late start to the season but he will also likely pick his game up a bit in the playoffs. Nate Robinson, Tony Allen, Marquis Daniels and Shelden Williams could all help out some in this series if needed by the Celtics.
EDGE: CELTICS
COACH: Erik Spoelstra is a head coach on the rise. He learned well coaching under Pat Riley and Stan Van Gundy before graduating to head coach. He led the Heat to a 47-35 record (57.3%) this season. He now has a career record in Miami of 90-74 (54.9%) during the regular season and he is 3-4 in the playoffs. He will be able to match X’s and O’s with Doc Rivers.
Doc Rivers led the ancient Celtics to a 50-32 (61%) record during the regular season this year. He is 280-212 (56.9%) during his six years as head coach of the Celtics during the regular season and he is 26-21 (55.3%) in his post season career leading them to a NBA Championship in 2007-08.
EDGE: CELTICS
PREDICTION: The Celtics have a few mis-matches to exploit in this series. I still see the Heat winning two games in this series. I’m taking the Celtics in 6 games.